Application of a Bayesian network to aid the interpretation of blood alcohol (ethanol) concentrations in air crashes

Peter D. Maskell, Graham Jackson

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    4 Citations (Scopus)
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    Abstract

    In the investigation of a fatal air crash, it is important to determine if the pilot, at the time of death, was contravening the regulations in relation to 1) the permitted concentration of ethanol (alcohol) in the blood and 2) whether the pilot had consumed alcohol within a specified period before flying. It is also important to assess whether any alcohol detected in the toxicological samples was present either because of consumption or because of post-mortem alcohol formation. We have developed a Bayesian Network that models the relationships between analytical results, circumstantial evidence and the concentration of alcohol at the time of death in cases of air crash. The model provides a rational, coherent approach to forensic interpretation, moving interpretation from a largely subjective, generalist approach to a more objective, case-specific methodology utilising available relevant data and accommodating the inevitable uncertainties within a case.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number110174
    Number of pages14
    JournalForensic Science International
    Volume308
    Early online date29 Jan 2020
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2020

    Keywords

    • Bayesian network
    • Ethanol interpretation
    • Air crashes
    • Postmortem

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