Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks

Francisco J. Perez-Reche, Sergei N. Taraskin, Luciano da F. Costa, Franco M. Neri, Christopher A. Gilligan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to analyse separately the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1083-1092
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of the Royal Society Interface
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2010
Externally publishedYes

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Anisotropy
Disease Outbreaks
Automobiles
Urodela
Plant Roots
Infectious Disease Transmission
Retinal Ganglion Cells
Domestic Animals
Population Dynamics
Social Support
Ecosystem
Epidemiology
Aminopropionitrile
Anthralin
Porphobilinogen Synthase
Spontaneous Fractures
Calculi
Pathogens
Transaminases
Crops

Cite this

Perez-Reche, F. J., Taraskin, S. N., Costa, L. D. F., Neri, F. M., & Gilligan, C. A. (2010). Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 1083-1092. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0475

Perez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.; Costa, Luciano da F.; Neri, Franco M.; Gilligan, Christopher A. / Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks.

In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 07.2010, p. 1083-1092.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. / Perez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.; Costa, Luciano da F.; Neri, Franco M.; Gilligan, Christopher A.

In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 07.2010, p. 1083-1092.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Costa,Luciano da F.

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AU - Gilligan,Christopher A.

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AB - One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to analyse separately the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.

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Perez-Reche FJ, Taraskin SN, Costa LDF, Neri FM, Gilligan CA. Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2010 Jul;1083-1092. Available from, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0475