Effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria

Sabiu Bariki Sani

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

    Abstract

    The current issue of deregulation of downstream oil sector through gradual subsidy withdrawal has regenerated heated debates in Nigeria. The government claims that the process will guarantee long term stability in product supply and price which will translate into economic growth and development, however skeptics especially the organised labour are claiming that deregulation will lead to higher product prices, high cost of production, loss of jobs and will bring about negative growth in the economy. Therefore this paper employs a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model on quarterly data over the period 1980q1 to 2012q4 using Variance Decomposition, Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality tests to examine the effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on four macroeconomic variables, namely; GDP, Inflation, Unemployment and Minimum wage. This paper finds evidence that changes in oil price due to deregulation is the major source of variation in GDP, Inflation and Unemployment, while it is not found to be a significant source of variation in Minimum wage. The paper also discovered that there is positive impact of oil price changes on GDP and Inflation but negative impact on Unemployment and Minimum wage in the short run which became positive in the long run. Finally the Granger causality test indicates unidirectional causality running from Petroleum prices to GDP and from Inflation to Petroleum prices while there is no evidence of a causal relationship with Minimum wage and Unemployment.
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    EventAnnual Paris Business and Social Science Research Conference - Paris, France
    Duration: 3 Jul 20134 Jul 2014

    Conference

    ConferenceAnnual Paris Business and Social Science Research Conference
    CountryFrance
    CityParis
    Period3/07/134/07/14

    Fingerprint

    Nigeria
    Oil
    Minimum wage
    Deregulation
    Inflation
    Unemployment
    Macroeconomic variables
    Oil prices
    Granger causality test
    Petroleum
    Vector autoregressive model
    Organized labor
    Causality
    Price changes
    Short-run
    Economic growth and development
    Variance decomposition
    Guarantee
    Government
    Impulse response function

    Cite this

    Sani, S. B. (2013). Effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Paper presented at Annual Paris Business and Social Science Research Conference, Paris, France.
    Sani, Sabiu Bariki. / Effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Paper presented at Annual Paris Business and Social Science Research Conference, Paris, France.
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    Sani, SB 2013, 'Effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria' Paper presented at Annual Paris Business and Social Science Research Conference, Paris, France, 3/07/13 - 4/07/14, .

    Effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. / Sani, Sabiu Bariki.

    2013. Paper presented at Annual Paris Business and Social Science Research Conference, Paris, France.

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

    TY - CONF

    T1 - Effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria

    AU - Sani, Sabiu Bariki

    PY - 2013

    Y1 - 2013

    N2 - The current issue of deregulation of downstream oil sector through gradual subsidy withdrawal has regenerated heated debates in Nigeria. The government claims that the process will guarantee long term stability in product supply and price which will translate into economic growth and development, however skeptics especially the organised labour are claiming that deregulation will lead to higher product prices, high cost of production, loss of jobs and will bring about negative growth in the economy. Therefore this paper employs a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model on quarterly data over the period 1980q1 to 2012q4 using Variance Decomposition, Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality tests to examine the effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on four macroeconomic variables, namely; GDP, Inflation, Unemployment and Minimum wage. This paper finds evidence that changes in oil price due to deregulation is the major source of variation in GDP, Inflation and Unemployment, while it is not found to be a significant source of variation in Minimum wage. The paper also discovered that there is positive impact of oil price changes on GDP and Inflation but negative impact on Unemployment and Minimum wage in the short run which became positive in the long run. Finally the Granger causality test indicates unidirectional causality running from Petroleum prices to GDP and from Inflation to Petroleum prices while there is no evidence of a causal relationship with Minimum wage and Unemployment.

    AB - The current issue of deregulation of downstream oil sector through gradual subsidy withdrawal has regenerated heated debates in Nigeria. The government claims that the process will guarantee long term stability in product supply and price which will translate into economic growth and development, however skeptics especially the organised labour are claiming that deregulation will lead to higher product prices, high cost of production, loss of jobs and will bring about negative growth in the economy. Therefore this paper employs a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model on quarterly data over the period 1980q1 to 2012q4 using Variance Decomposition, Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality tests to examine the effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on four macroeconomic variables, namely; GDP, Inflation, Unemployment and Minimum wage. This paper finds evidence that changes in oil price due to deregulation is the major source of variation in GDP, Inflation and Unemployment, while it is not found to be a significant source of variation in Minimum wage. The paper also discovered that there is positive impact of oil price changes on GDP and Inflation but negative impact on Unemployment and Minimum wage in the short run which became positive in the long run. Finally the Granger causality test indicates unidirectional causality running from Petroleum prices to GDP and from Inflation to Petroleum prices while there is no evidence of a causal relationship with Minimum wage and Unemployment.

    M3 - Paper

    ER -

    Sani SB. Effect of deregulation of downstream oil sector on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. 2013. Paper presented at Annual Paris Business and Social Science Research Conference, Paris, France.