Inferring the dynamics of a spatial epidemic from time-series data

J. A. N. Filipe, Wilfred Otten, Gavin J. Gibson, Christopher A. Gilligan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Spatial interactions are key determinants in the dynamics of many epidemiological and ecological systems; therefore it is important to use spatio-temporal models to estimate essential parameters. However, spatially-explicit data sets are rarely available; moreover, fitting spatially-explicit models to such data can be technically demanding and computationally intensive. Thus non-spatial models are often used to estimate parameters from temporal data. We introduce a method for fitting models to temporal data in order to estimate parameters which characterise spatial epidemics. The method uses semi-spatial models and pair approximation to take explicit account of spatial clustering of disease without requiring spatial data. The approach is demonstrated for data from experiments with plant populations invaded by a common soilborne fungus, Rhizoctonia solani. Model inferences concerning the number of sources of disease and primary and secondary infections are tested against independent measures from spatio-temporal data. The applicability of the method to a wide range of host-pathogen systems is discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)373-391
Number of pages19
JournalBulletin of Mathematical Biology
Volume66
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2004

Fingerprint

Time Series Data
Time series
time series analysis
time series
Rhizoctonia
Estimate
Pair Approximation
Spatial Clustering
Spatio-temporal Model
Spatio-temporal Data
Coinfection
Model Fitting
Ecosystem
Cluster Analysis
Spatial Model
Spatial Data
Fungi
spatial data
Pathogens
Infection

Cite this

Filipe, J. A. N. ; Otten, Wilfred ; Gibson, Gavin J. ; Gilligan, Christopher A. / Inferring the dynamics of a spatial epidemic from time-series data. In: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 2004 ; Vol. 66, No. 2. pp. 373-391.
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Inferring the dynamics of a spatial epidemic from time-series data. / Filipe, J. A. N.; Otten, Wilfred; Gibson, Gavin J.; Gilligan, Christopher A.

In: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 66, No. 2, 03.2004, p. 373-391.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AB - Spatial interactions are key determinants in the dynamics of many epidemiological and ecological systems; therefore it is important to use spatio-temporal models to estimate essential parameters. However, spatially-explicit data sets are rarely available; moreover, fitting spatially-explicit models to such data can be technically demanding and computationally intensive. Thus non-spatial models are often used to estimate parameters from temporal data. We introduce a method for fitting models to temporal data in order to estimate parameters which characterise spatial epidemics. The method uses semi-spatial models and pair approximation to take explicit account of spatial clustering of disease without requiring spatial data. The approach is demonstrated for data from experiments with plant populations invaded by a common soilborne fungus, Rhizoctonia solani. Model inferences concerning the number of sources of disease and primary and secondary infections are tested against independent measures from spatio-temporal data. The applicability of the method to a wide range of host-pathogen systems is discussed.

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