Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic

Francisco J. Pérez-Reche, Franco M. Neri, Sergei N. Taraskin, Christopher A. Gilligan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  • 6 Citations

Abstract

Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by diseases that lead to permanent immunity of infected hosts after recovery or death. We approach the problem from the perspective of the science of complexity by proposing and testing several strategies for the estimation of important characteristics of epidemics, such as the probability of invasion. Our results suggest that parsimonious approximate methodologies may lead to the most reliable and robust predictions. The proposed methodologies are first applied to analysis of experimentally observed epidemics: invasion of the fungal plant pathogen Rhizoctonia solani in replicated host microcosms. We then consider numerical experiments of the susceptible–infected–removed model to investigate the performance of the proposed methods in further detail. The suggested framework can be used as a valuable tool for quick assessment of epidemic threat at the stage when epidemics only start developing. Moreover, our work amplifies the significance of the small-scale and finite-time microcosm realizations of epidemics revealing their predictive power.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2085-2096
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume9
Issue number74
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2012
Externally publishedYes

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Common Bile Duct Diseases
Eyelid Diseases
Supravalvular Aortic Stenosis
Blood Stains
Anthralin
Epidemiology
Calculi
Pathogens
Muscle Contraction
Seismology
Recovery
Testing
Experiments
Rhizoctonia
Immunity

Cite this

Pérez-Reche, F. J., Neri, F. M., Taraskin, S. N., & Gilligan, C. A. (2012). Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 9(74), 2085-2096. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0130

Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Neri, Franco M.; Taraskin, Sergei N.; Gilligan, Christopher A. / Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic.

In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol. 9, No. 74, 09.2012, p. 2085-2096.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Pérez-Reche, FJ, Neri, FM, Taraskin, SN & Gilligan, CA 2012, 'Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic' Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol 9, no. 74, pp. 2085-2096. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0130

Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic. / Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Neri, Franco M.; Taraskin, Sergei N.; Gilligan, Christopher A.

In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol. 9, No. 74, 09.2012, p. 2085-2096.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Pérez-Reche FJ, Neri FM, Taraskin SN, Gilligan CA. Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2012 Sep;9(74):2085-2096. Available from, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0130