Prospective dynamic assessment of risk of sexual reoffending in individuals with an intellectual disability and a history of sexual offending behaviour

Rachael E. Lofthouse, William R. Lindsay, Vasiliki Totsika, Richard P. Hastings, Douglas P. Boer, James L. Haaven

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

21 Citations (Scopus)


The purpose of the present study was to add to the literature on the predictive accuracy of a dynamic intellectual disability specific risk assessment tool.
A dynamic risk assessment for sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S), a static risk assessment for sexual offending (STATIC-99), and a static risk assessment for violence (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG]) were completed for a sample of 64 adult males with an intellectual disability.
The dynamic risk assessment for sexual offenders with an intellectual disability resulted in the best prediction of sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S area under the curve (AUC) = 0.92) this was better than an established sexual offending static risk assessment (STATIC-99 AUC = 0.75). A static tool for violent reoffending, did not perform as well in this group (VRAG AUC = 0.58).
Results suggest that dynamic variables are useful in predicting sexual reoffending with individuals with an intellectual disability, confirming previous findings. The ARMIDILO-S is a promising dynamic risk assessment for individuals with an intellectual disability.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)394–403
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities
Issue number5
Early online date8 Aug 2013
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2013


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