AbstractThis thesis explores the relationship between oil price shocks, exchange rate dynamics and stock market behaviour in Nigeria using a variety of econometric specifications. The response of exchange rates and stock markets to oil price fluctuations is an issue of great interest to policy makers, monetary authorities and investors in both oil exporting and oil importing economies. Despite over 30 years of empirical research, there is still no consensus on their relationship, in addition there have been limited empirical efforts exploring this relationship for Nigeria. First, the thesis applies a Multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to investigate the interaction between real oil price, real exchange rate and productivity differentials. On the one hand results from the VECM suggest that, as predicted by the theoretical literature, oil price exercise a significant positive influence on Nigeria’s real exchange rate but contrary to the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, productivity differential exerts a significant negative influence on Nigeria’s real exchange rate. On the other hand, results from the SVAR analysis using short run restrictions do not offer much support for the theoretical literature on the impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates. The response of real exchange rate and productivity differentials to an oil price shock although positive is not statistically significant. Second, the thesis applies Generalised utoregressive
Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class models to explore the influence of oil price return on exchange rate return in Nigeria during periods of extreme oil price volatility. Empirical estimates suggest that over the study period oil price return in Nigeria exercised a significant negative influence on exchange rate return. Third, on the relationship between oil price shocks and the stock market, the thesis employs a multivariate VAR along with a Generalised Impulse Response Function (GIRF) and Variance Decomposition (VDC) as well as an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Quantile Regression (QR) technique to examine the role of oil price on the Nigerian stock market. Results of the VAR analysis, OLS and quantile regression indicates that oil price changes do not play an important role in affecting real stock return in Nigeria. However, by employing the QR technique on a recent sample, overall results point to the importance of negative oil price changes in explaining movements in the Nigerian stock market lending credence to the view that the impact of oil price on the stock market occurs in the short run. Finally the thesis applies a DCC-IGARCH (1,1) to evaluate the dynamic correlation between oil prices and the Nigerian stock market. The dynamic correlation findings demonstrate a number of notable positive and negative correlations between the two. While the Nigerian stock market does not always move in the same direction with oil price, correlations between the two tend to increase and decrease over time. The results of this study are of value to policy makers and investors who are interested in understanding the response of exchange rates and stock markets to an oil price shock in Nigeria. In addition, the results are also transferable and generalizable to other oil exporting economies.
|Date of Award||Sep 2012|
|Sponsors||Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF)|
|Supervisor||Reza Kouhy (Supervisor)|